Many investors mistake Reliance Industries (BSE: 500325, NSE: RELIANCE) as India’s top selling refinery. But the country's top player continues to be Indian Oil Corporation (BSE: 530965, NSE: IOC) and by a margin that RIL can’t easily bridge. But when it comes to profits, it is another story altogether. Still, nobody is lost on IOC’s potential if free market prices for petroleum products are introduced. That is why market waits with bated breath on counters like Indian Oil, and their FPOs. And unlike cousin BPCL (BSE: 500547, NSE: BPCL), IOC is not a constituent of Nifty, and such low visibility can be a huge advantage in capital markets, going forward. Even if full free pricing remains unachievable, a restructuring of the price regime can positively affect Indian Oil. Quantitatively, it is difficult to write off India’s largest business enterprise, ranked 105th on Fortune 500. However, due to the uncertainties with the price-control regime and the government subsidies, IOC has a track-record of springing nasty surprises, as it happened in 2007-08 and 2008-09, when profits dipped drastically. Retail investors considering the FPO route should be cautious on this front, as international crude prices and government policies have a telling effect on this counter. But with a P/E less than 8 and a P/B less than 2, there is no doubt that IOC is now available at a bargain.
Monday, June 21, 2010
IOC FPO: Bargain Price, But Long Wait Needed
Many investors mistake Reliance Industries (BSE: 500325, NSE: RELIANCE) as India’s top selling refinery. But the country's top player continues to be Indian Oil Corporation (BSE: 530965, NSE: IOC) and by a margin that RIL can’t easily bridge. But when it comes to profits, it is another story altogether. Still, nobody is lost on IOC’s potential if free market prices for petroleum products are introduced. That is why market waits with bated breath on counters like Indian Oil, and their FPOs. And unlike cousin BPCL (BSE: 500547, NSE: BPCL), IOC is not a constituent of Nifty, and such low visibility can be a huge advantage in capital markets, going forward. Even if full free pricing remains unachievable, a restructuring of the price regime can positively affect Indian Oil. Quantitatively, it is difficult to write off India’s largest business enterprise, ranked 105th on Fortune 500. However, due to the uncertainties with the price-control regime and the government subsidies, IOC has a track-record of springing nasty surprises, as it happened in 2007-08 and 2008-09, when profits dipped drastically. Retail investors considering the FPO route should be cautious on this front, as international crude prices and government policies have a telling effect on this counter. But with a P/E less than 8 and a P/B less than 2, there is no doubt that IOC is now available at a bargain.
SAIL FPO: Comfortable Price, But Recent Performance Troubling
Nobody can doubt SAIL’s (BSE: 500113, NSE: SAIL) sales or production capacity that easily dwarfs private sector giant Tata Steel (BSE: 500470, NSE: TATASTEEL). Nor can anyone fail to be impressed by its 100% adequacy in captive iron ores. The only trouble spots are its high labour cost and the need to import 70% of its coking coal, that makes it less profitable than it should be. But with a new Chairman in place – the youngest ever in its history and brought in from outside – Steel Authority of India Ltd is tackling its challenges with a fresh vigour. By shifting more focus to value-added and speciality steels, and creating a new technology platform in alliance with global players like Posco (NYSE:PKX) and ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) to use the domestically available non-coking coal, Steel Authority seems to be right on track. It is leveraging the newfound autonomy coming from the Maharatna status, as well as planning to power its expansion through an FPO of around Rs. 16,000 crore, at least half of which will be equity expansion. But investors will be weighing the peculiarity of last two years' financial performance - with profits dipping for the first time in 2008-09 and sales dipping for the first time in 2009-10, ever since the decisive turnaround that started in 2006. However, with a comfortable price-to-earnings of around 12, and trading at only 2.5X the book, the SAIL scrip is not severely overpriced, taking into account the capex ahead.
MMTC FPO: High Value, But Valuation Needs Correction

Bigger by market capitalization than banking’s SBI (BSE: 500112, NSE: SBIN), software’s Infosys (BSE: 500209, NSE: INFOSYSTCH), heavy engineering’s BHEL (BSE: 500103, NSE: BHEL), steel’s SAIL (BSE: 500113, NSE: SAIL), mining’s NMDC (BSE: 526371, NSE: NMDC), or power generation’s NTPC (BSE: 532555, NSE: NTPC), is the country’s premier trading house Minerals & Metals Trading Corporation (BSE: 513377, NSE: MMTC). In fact, it is second only to Reliance Industries (BSE: 500325, NSE: RELIANCE) & ONGC (BSE: 500312, NSE: ONGC) in market cap. The share price is also the highest in India, having crossed Rs. 34,500 for a Rs. 10 face value. Critics say it is only due to the extremely low float of 0.70% with Government holding the remaining 99.30%, but that might not be the only reason. MMTC is the country’s largest international trading house, the leader in exports like minerals, the leader in imports like non-ferrous metals, steam coal, & fertilizers, and the leader in trading agro-products. Besides these commodity trades, Minerals & Metals Trading Corporation is the country’s largest importer and trader in gold. Setting the stage for the FPO is a bonus and stock-split which the market applauded with a 21% jump of over Rs. 6000 on a single day, recently. More worrying than the extremely low float is overvaluation by way of earnings and book value. MMTC trades at a P/E of over 720 years as against the industry average of 160 odd, and its price-to-book is an unbelievably high 268 times. Retail investors are advised extreme caution, and to watch how the bonus and stock-split improves liquidity and corrects valuations, before the FPO arrives.
RCF FPO: Strong Growth, Mega Plans, But Lookout for Offer Discount
Though not as large as Coromandel (BSE: 506395, NSE: COROMANDEL) of Murugappa, Zuari (BSE: 500780, NSE: ZUARIAGRO) of Birlas, or GSFC (BSE: 500690, NSE: GSFC) in the joint sector, RCF (BSE: 524230, NSE: RCF) is public sector’s biggest enterprise in the vital fertilizer sector. And that single fact is holding many promises in the outlook on Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilisers. The best example is RCF’s joint plan with Coal India and GAIL (BSE: 532155, NSE: GAIL) to revive the mega Talcher plant of Fertiliser Corporation of India at Rs. 10,000 crore, a move that will make the company the most powerful in its sector. No wonder then that RCF’s FPO is keenly awaited, and is likely to be dominated by new issue of shares to fund expansion. With nitrogenous fertilisers still amply subsidised and the pricing of complex fertilisers flexible under NBS, Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers is one of the safer plays. The good monsoon can provide the perfect backdrop for this FPO. However, a lot will depend on the discount from market-price at which the FPO is offered, as the scrip trades at a P/E of over 19 years, significantly above the industry average of 14 odd. The P/B of 2.35 also signals more than full pricing. But RCF definitely has long-term value as the company continues to exhibit robust growth with profits never dipping in the last five years, and sales only dipping once, which was in the last financial year due to a huge base formed during the previous year.
Shipping Corporation of India FPO: High Value for Money, If Turnaround Happens
Size-wise there are no doubts. The Shipping Corporation of India (BSE: 523598, NSE: SCI) registers almost twice the annual sales of nearest player Great Eastern Shipping (BSE: 500620, NSE: GESHIP), and multi-times the size of fast growing players Mercator Lines (BSE: 526235, NSE: MLL) and Essar Shipping (BSE: 500630, NSE: ESSARSHIP). But when it comes to profits the bigger size or capacity has become a handicap, especially during years like 2008 & 09 when shipping went southward due to crude moving down. SCI has however drawn up a battle plan that will see 30 new ships joining its fleet, making it young and competitive, and this is going to be part powered by an FPO. The government will also disinvest a part of its stake through the offer. For retail investors, Shipping Corporation should be a cautious play, as ever since the near doubling of profits in 2004-05, it has been on a steady decline in profits. It effected a brief turnaround in 2008-09, but has again dipped alarmingly in 2009-10. However, with the fleet all set to be modernized, Shipping Corporation may have already hit rock bottom, with good chance for a sustained turnaround, going forward. The Shipping Corporation scrip is available at a bargain as it currently trades near its book value, though it looks fully priced by way of P/E.
ALSO READ: Shipping Corporation FPO - Invest or Wait?
Power Grid Corporation FPO: Monopoly Player, But Only Long Term Value
In sales, Power Grid Corporation (BSE: 532898, NSE: POWERGRID) is comparable to Tata Power (BSE: 500400, NSE: TATAPOWER) or Reliance Infrastructure (BSE: 500390, NSE: RELINFRA). In profits, even better, made small only by power leader NTPC (BSE: 532555, NSE: NTPC). But when it comes to market dynamics, even NTPC is no match, as Power Grid is a near monopoly in its core segment of inter-state power transfers, while NTPC is getting increasingly pressured from all sides. And notably, the Power Grid counter is yet to experience a run up. Truly, an occasion for the Indian public to hold part ownership of their own treasures, as per the disinvestment vision. This FPO will also be one of the largest at Rs. 8000 crore. But with a slightly higher price-to-earnings than the industry average, and almost 3X price-to-book, Power Grid seems fully priced, with not much money left on the table for retail investors entering through FPO, especially if they have a short-term outlook. However, a notable upside is that Power Grid Corporation hasn't dipped in sales or profits for the last six years.
Hindustan Copper FPO: High Value, But Astronomical Valuation?
Hindustan Copper (BSE: 513599, NSE: HINDCOPPER) lags Sterlite (BSE: 500900, NSE: STER) and Hindalco (BSE: 500440, NSE: HINDALCO) in copper production. But that is history. As the largest miner of copper ores in the country, the story going forward will definitely be different. The all-intelligent market knows this and has effected a year-to-date price performance of nearly 60% for this PSU, despite the huge pressure on metal prices which saw leader Sterlite slipping by 7%. While Government is disinvesting 10% of its stake, Hind Copper is offering another 10%, thereby making it one of the larger FPOs at around Rs. 5000 crore. With Copper Age dating back to 10,000 years, but the demand only getting huger, Hindustan Copper might be the metal and the metal company to bet. But market might express some worry regarding the pricing, as there is a lingering doubt that a part of the current market price has something to do with the low supply. The key metrics also support this view. Though an abnormal looking P/E like 150 years is nothing new for mining companies, Hindustan Copper's is almost double, at 290 years. The price-to-book of 40 times also signals huge overvaluation, that can tumble down when the supply corrects through the FPO. Though a significant turnaround in profits has happened in 2009-10, the turnaround in income is yet to happen in Hind Copper.
Engineers India FPO: Strong Performer, But Fully Priced?
Engineers India Ltd (BSE: 532178, NSE: ENGINERSIN) is public sector’s answer to private sector’s Punj Lloyd (BSE: 532693, NSE: PUNJLLOYD) or Thermax (BSE: 500411, NSE: THERMAX). But more profitable than both of them. No wonder, the market patted its back with a price performance of over 120% year-to-date. But not many Indians are part of this game due to an over 90% holding by Government. Now all that is set to change with this over 1200 crore FPO. But with a P/E of nearly 25 years, which is also the industry average, Engineers India looks fully priced. Even worse, having a book value of only Rs. 41, the stock also looks expensive, as the current price is nearly 8 times the book. However, EIL's dramatic financial turnaround in 2008-09 continued to hold in 2009-10 too, and might continue, going forward. Being a PSU it is sort of having some assured business, but this may change in the coming years as the Government reduces its stake. Investors should take a call only by looking at the discount from market price, and with a long range outlook.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Rich Students Start School for Poor Students: An Indus International School Initiative
Students of Indus International School, Bangalore, display extreme capabilities by starting a new full-fledged international school for less fortunate cousins, under the leadership of Lt. Gen. Arjun Ray PVSM, CEO of Indus Trust, and powered by microfinance. The model has been appreciated by even HRD Minister Kapil Sibal.
Education at international schools like Indus costs upwards of Rs. 15,000 a month. Education at the new international school started by Indus students cost Rs. 120 a month.
And it is no ramshackle, poor kids’ school. How about Smart Board equipped classrooms? Or one laptop per child? Or a Wi-Fi campus? In fact all the core elements that make up Indus International School are there, including the IBO syllabus in primary school. The size is also impressive at 300 students. The school starts functioning from June 18th.
However, the structure of the school has so many practical, down-to-earth innovations that make this miracle possible for economically less fortunate students. Like its three-shift structure, its feel-at-home cottage architecture, its teachers from lower middleclass backgrounds who have been trained by Indus in IB curriculum, peer tutoring by Indus students, and a shift to the more affordable CBSE curriculum in higher classes.
But the care goes deep. In order to ensure that there are no dropouts due to difficult situations at home, all students are being provided educational insurance and even medical insurance in association with Bangalore’s leading hospitals.
The most unbelievable charm of the project is that the idea for the school, the detailed plans for the school, and even monitoring the execution of the project were by Indus students in classes 9 to 12. Structured on a microfinance platform, the students even ensured that their new school got sponsors and building designers. Says Lt. Gen Ray, “We felt that if any technology or curriculum claims to be the best in the world, it should not be exclusive to the rich.”
This much decorated former General had even presented this model before Kapil Sibal, Central Minister for Human Resource Development, and won appreciation.
Indus International School’s Unique Value Proposition is leadership development. Their motto – In Omnia Paratus – meaning ‘Prepared for All Challenges’ reflects this philosophy. Such ideas are not just educational jargon at Indus, but actively pursued frameworks. With around 1000 students from 28 countries, imaginative co-curricular programs, and excellent performance in international exams, the School is surging ahead in its mission to create better leaders for tomorrow.
Imagine study tours to Leh & Ladakh. Climbing atop battle tanks, and river rafting in the Indus River. Or imagine assisting less-privileged students in other schools, with camps and training. Or imagine writing science articles for the in-house Science Magazine. These are just samples of the kind of ‘beyond the classroom’ education being followed at Indus International School, Bangalore.
The Indus Trust operates on a powerful idea – that those who are aspiring to groom future leaders should be exceptional leaders themselves. Indus International School embodies this towering vision in promoters like high-flying Silicon Valley technocrat Kumar Malavalli, noted industrialists HB Jairaj & Sushil Mantri, and a CEO like soldier-scholar-author-speaker Lt. General Arjun Ray. While Malavalli was the first Indian to be inducted into the celebrated ‘Silicon Valley Engineering Hall of Fame’, a select club of 48 outstanding engineers; Lt. Gen. Ray, a recipient of Param Vishist Seva Medal (PVSM), the highest award in Indian Armed Forces, has an exceptional academic & military track record behind him. Together with an equally illustrious group of Trustees & Executive Team, they created an exceptional school in every sense – ranging from outstanding values to sheer architectural beauty.
Indus is a full-spectrum IB School. The Principal of Indus, Mrs. Sarojini Rao, is a University Gold Medallist and a double postgraduate in Education & Economics. She is trained in all the three IB Programmes (PYP, MYP, & DP).
Admission to the Indus International School for grades 6 and above is based on written aptitude tests. Indus believes that all children possess specific intelligences in which they are strong. Consequently, admissions will be based on the proclivity of the student especially mental organization, creativity and critical thinking skills. This concept is based on the idea of multiple intelligences. Indus has developed assessment yardsticks which will be applied to determine the proclivity of each child. The school accepts both boarders and day scholars.
Monday, June 7, 2010
Can Manappuram Keep Growing at 60%?
For early investors of Manappuram (BOM/BSE: 531213), it has been a dream run. Celebrity fund Sequoia of Apple-Google fame has acknowledged it as its best India investment. The Kerala headquartered NBFC with gold loan at its core, is preparing for its third round of rapid growth. Will maverick entrepreneur VP Nandakumar follow the Kotak (BSE: 500247, NSE: KOTAKBANK) model, the HDFC (BSE: 500010, NSE: HDFC) model, the Shriram Transport (BSE: 511218 ,NSE: SRTRANSFIN) model, or their own Manappuram model to enter a higher orbit? The unconventional leader he is, Nandakumar is now betting on growing the gold loan segment to its real potential, rather than on other smaller concerns. Seasonal Magazine interviews Chairman Nandakumar and Managing Director I Unnikrishnan to find out whether their plans to keep growing Manappuram (BOM/BSE: MANAPPG) at 60% YoY for the next 6 to 7 years can deliver or not.
Also Read on Manappuram:
Manappuram at All Time High - How to Invest Here Now?
Manappuram Improves Further on Higher Growth, Lower Expenses
Manappuram’s Gold Loan Business - Risky or Rewarding?
Manappuram - Overrated or Underrated?
Can Manappuram Keep Growing at 60%?
Also Read on Manappuram:
Manappuram at All Time High - How to Invest Here Now?
Manappuram Improves Further on Higher Growth, Lower Expenses
Manappuram’s Gold Loan Business - Risky or Rewarding?
Manappuram - Overrated or Underrated?
Can Manappuram Keep Growing at 60%?
Who will believe that a pawn shop in a remote Kerala village will one day be audited by Ernst & Young, attract private equity from Sequoia Capital, and get featured in New York Times? Probably none, not even the most diehard entrepreneurs, as we associate E&Y, Sequoia, & NYT with the likes of Apple, Yahoo, or Google. But that is exactly what a Keralite by name of VP Nandakumar did, or, should we say that is what happened to VP Nandakumar. This is that unbelievable a story. Jokes apart, the Executive Chairman of Manappuram Group of Companies has had lots of both – what he did and what happened to him. Often, life packs its goodies in unfortunate incidents, and a young Nandakumar was thrust with the responsibility to run the family’s gold loan business when his father passed away suddenly. Nandakumar was at that time an officer with Nedungadi Bank. A strange coincidence as it may seem, this bank ceased to exist as such shortly afterwards due to a crisis-led amalgamation with Punjab National Bank (BSE: 532461, NSE: PNB), and Nandakumar went on to do financial magic or let magic happen to him. In some ways this magic was in his DNA. His hometown of Thrissur, apart from its cultural leadership in Kerala, was famous for the finance business, being home to at least three banks – South Indian Bank (BSE: 532218, NSE: SOUTHBANK), Dhanalakshmi Bank(BSE: 532180, NSE: DHANBANK), & Catholic Syrian Bank – not to mention its status as the national capital of the chit business. Nandakumar’s entrepreneurial greatness is that he believed in this DNA and this DNA’s potential to elevate Manappuram from a village entity to a national entity. Today, Manappuram General Finance & Leasing, the Group’s flagship and listed entity is an investors’ darling, having gone up 500% in value since March 2009 lows, even while Sensex struggled to rise by barely 80%. His close associates will point out an uncanny ability in complex problem solving as his core strength, while Nandakumar himself would give due credit to the limitless possibilities of their core gold loan business in this country. Gold loan is the most secured of all loans, and thus has negligible NPAs. That eliminates the only risk from this money-minting business called personal financing that has one of the best yields in business. No wonder Manappuram’s recent QIP garnered Rs. 245 crore from 12 high-profile investors including Nomura, Merrill Lynch Capital Market, India Capital Fund, Morgan Stanley Mutual Fund, & SBI Mutual Fund. Now after a stock-split and bonus issue, not to mention excellent results, the real question before Manappuram is the way forward – whether they want to follow the Kotak model, the HDFC model, or follow on their own model. Seasonal Magazine interviews VP Nandakumar for this cover story:
Manappuram has had a dream run since 2006, not only in the capital markets, but in fundamental growth. To what do you attribute this success?
The Manappuram story is, basically speaking, a story of realizing a hidden potential which is there in all of us. What I mean, specifically, is a funding potential. We Indians have this treasure called gold stored away in our cabinets and bank lockers. We even end up paying locker charges for it. But what is this material basically? This is just another form of currency, perhaps the most stable currency in these troubled times. In fact, in most of the developed world you can settle your dues in gold. But most of us have never thought about it that way. Manappuram tapped into this potential by focusing and growing our gold loan business.
But Manappuram has been in the gold loan business for long, maybe from the 80s. What happened in these recent years to witness this exponential growth?
Yes, but not from the 80s, Manappuram was there as a single-branch gold loan operation since the late 1940s. I took charge from my father – who was the founder – in 1986. The growth since then has never been symmetric. We had diversified into other typical NBFC activities like leasing and general finance. At some stages, we were less focused on gold. Meanwhile, we progressed on the incorporation front, moving successively from a proprietary concern to a private limited company to a limited company and then to a listed company through our IPO in 1996. But overall, two rapid growth phases stand out – one, between 1998 to 2006, and the second, 2006 to till now.
That also means, the going hasn’t been that smooth always…
It was never smooth. Manappuram is a story that didn’t just happen with the overall economic development, but a case that grew against economic adversities. In fact, all our turning points were adversity driven. This is one factor that I feel proud about, that this is in our DNA. Going forward, I think this is going to be our differentiating edge.
Can you describe how these adversities and subsequent growth phases happened?
Well, even before the two stages that I mentioned, there should be a few words. Leadership of Manappuram was not chosen by me, but almost thrust upon me when my father encountered a terminal illness. I was comfortably working as a probationary officer in a private bank then. I was not too keen to take this up, but did so after careful contemplation. This was not about a small family business at stake, as we could have easily wound up that over a short period. At stake was a values-based activity that my father had carefully nurtured, earning the trust of thousands of fellow villagers. The choice was before me – squander this trust, or realize its value and build upon it, however small it was then. Even to this day, we at Manappuram value this trust of our customers and other stakeholders above everything else.
So, the very beginning was in adversity…
That is what I meant. It was a risky jump, taking over the reins of Manappuram. But then the initial going wasn’t as tough as I imagined. Luckily for me, the trust that my father had built up was enormous. In those good old days, even small financing companies like ours were allowed to take in customer deposits. But my father, the conservative person he was, had voluntarily limited his deposit and loan books to sub 25 lakh levels. Villagers used to queue up here, enquiring whether there is any slot for deposit, and my father used to keep a bunch of inland-letters ready for them, sending them one by one as some other depositors withdrew their money. That was the kind of trust he enjoyed. In the initial years what I did was just to leverage this trust, by doing away with his voluntary limit on deposits and loans. The business quickly shot up above 1 crore, and then even beyond.
Still, Manappuram was a proprietary concern?
Yes, and that was a huge drawback for me. Remember, I was not hit with the entrepreneurial bug or anything, but I never forgot what I had forsaken to take this up. Here I was, once a well-travelled and accomplished corporate credit specialist at a bank, doing this 300 sq ft pawn shop. I decided that whatever I do, it had to be professional and excellent. I could always rely on this small operation’s values and business logic, but I needed to create something much bigger and respect-worthy.
That must have been the beginning of MAGFIL?
Exactly. I looked around and found that Thrissur, or Kerala, for that matter didn’t have much of a model to offer for financial companies. Most operations, for example those Thrissur based chit companies, were friends or family affairs. They were good at making money, but transparency was their last bother. I decided to do just the opposite. Instead of having friends or family members to occupy the Director Board, I created this company with accomplished financial and management professionals. The domains selected were general finance and leasing, which I thought will be highly productive areas. That is how our flagship NBFC, Manappuram General Finance and Leasing was born.
What made you go for its IPO? It was practically unheard of for a Kerala based company in those days?
Mainly, there were two reasons. All my efforts at having transparent procedures and good corporate governance at Manappuram were logically pointing to the next stage – the publicly listed universe – where such values were not only respected, but were the make-or-break factors. Remember, this was in the 90s, the age of Dr. Manmohan Singh’s economic liberalization and the advent of respected operations like Infosys. So, there was a synergy. Secondly, I was fed up with raising money from banks. I had even put in my house and entire belongings to a local bank to raise money. But that kind of money – one or two crores – was not enough to fund the expansion plan I had in place for MAGFIL. A public issue appeared the most appealing way forward.
Apart from having a professional Board in place, what are the transparent procedures that you are mentioning?
There are so many facets to transparency. To mention just one, Manappuram is not only one of the largest income tax payers in its sector as well as in Kerala, but we have never had any serious dispute with IT department in our history.
How difficult was the IPO, especially with Manappuram put up at a remote village of Kerala?
Well, some things were easy, and some others quite difficult. Non financial aspects like accounts, transparency, governance, rating etc were non-issues for us. In fact, we were the first NBFC in Kerala to go for voluntary rating, at a time when most of our competitors were not even aware of such things. But the financial side was quite difficult. At that time, a company going in for the IPO should have had a minimum of Rs. 3 crore as paid-up capital. We were around half of that, 1.5 crore. So I embarked upon an initiative to collect small retail investments from among our customers, most of whom were from this village and personally known to me. This was a time when the kind of trust that I spoke about earlier came to our rescue. Still, many were sceptical. I assured them that I would take back their shares and pay them interest, in case things went wrong.
And did it go wrong?
You bet, it did! We were not ready for the dynamics of being listed at a stock exchange. We were listed at BSE in 1996. I used to watch in horror as our share prices slid from its face value of Rs. 10 to 9.5, 9, 8.5, 8, over the subsequent months. People who had subscribed to the shares before the IPO began queuing up for the promised buyback. Many thought that I wouldn’t keep my word. It was so difficult too. But again, keeping their trust occurred to me as paramount. So, here I was, buying back Rs. 8 shares from whoever tendered it, and paying them Rs. 10 plus interest. Financially, it was the most foolish step an entrepreneur could take. But somewhere deep in my mind, I knew that it all could turnaround, provided we kept our faith.
These Rs. 8 shares were the same that went up to Rs. 690 recently, right?
Yes, they had appreciated by more than 85 times. But nobody had a clue back then. Many early investors kept their shares as I was advised that taking them back in such an informal fashion would amount to violating SEBI norms.
What do you think of the phenomenal rise of the Manappuram scrip?
From those early days, I understood that a business shouldn’t be focussing too much on its share price. The only duty of the business was to grow its fundamentals stronger and stronger, quarter after quarter, year after year. The capital markets will take care of the rest. And that is what happened too. When we shifted gears into overdrive, and our earnings started reflecting that, the scrip’s price just went through the roof. As the stock market joke goes, price is nothing but P/E times E. Of course, when you start showing above-industry growth potential, you get rated at higher than industry P/E, reflecting your forward earnings.
We still didn’t get to those two stages of growth that you mentioned…
Yes, the first break came in 1998. Better put, the first serious adversity came around that time. Government suddenly changed the rules of the NBFC game. Almost overnight, we were straddled with a serious asset-liability mismatch. It was almost the end of road for us. Many of my professional Directors fled. I had no idea whatsoever as how to go forward. I kept rethinking all my strategies, and finally the truth dawned on me. I had made a mistake by relegating the gold loan business. We were still doing this non-glamorous business, but on a lesser scale and under the old proprietary concern. I decided to bring that business into this company. Gold loans were not risky like other loans. They could solve my asset-liability mismatch to a large extent. Still, there was another headache – the source of funds. Just before the government changed its mind on NBFCs, I had made all arrangements for a massive expansion. My new branches were raring to go, and I had a new business model to offer, and no money.
How did you solve that finally?
That was the time when KV Kamath was having aggressive growth plans for the young ICICI Bank (BSE: 532174 NSE: ICICIBANK). One day I had an ICICI executive visiting me, and when they came to know of my healthy business model, they were willing to fund me to an extent. But the figure I had in my mind was ten times that. So he went back, and after extensive discussions at his HQ, came back with the idea of securitization, if I were to avail such massive funds. In those days, it was a novelty. Securitization involves transferring the gold loans from our books to their books, so that they could have a more trusted operation. I agreed and that is how this model, called ICICI Manappuram Model, was replicated by them elsewhere too. We could finally breath a sigh of relief.
Looking back, it was almost a miracle, isn’t it?
Definitely. But such miracles happen when you are fully equipped for such fateful events. In our case, this preparation was our IT infrastructure. From my early days, I had invested heavily on technology. Information was, even back then, literally at my fingertips. I can talk on and on about transparency, but more effective would have been to see it in action. This is what we offered ICICI. With a click of a mouse, they could verify for themselves how a certain Manappuram branch somewhere in the country had fared that day. Built on the Oracle platform, today this networked software setup is equivalent to the CBS system recently implemented at banks.
But even with ICICI funding, your growth until 2006 was nowhere around your post-06 performance…
True, it was nowhere near. That point brings us to the second growth phase. Around 2006-07, ICICI Bank faced some regulatory hurdles regarding securitization, and they could no longer fund us. We were in an even bigger trouble. Buoyed by a few years growth, I had planned a larger-than-life branch expansion across the country. And when ICICI conveyed their difficulty, we again felt that end-of-the-road feeling. I decided to take a breather and went on to Singapore to present a paper at a conference of NBFCs. Again, a chance encounter happened. One of my childhood friends was then at Singapore working for Temasek, that country’s sovereign investment fund. They were looking to enter the Indian financial sector in a big way, and through my friend they informed me that based on the paper I presented at the conference, they were interested in taking equity in Manappuram. After several rounds of discussions and due diligence here, and in Chennai, and in Singapore, that finally happened.
That also led to the scale up?
Yes, just like with ICICI, I had surprised them with my asking capacity. You can note that it is a special success trait that I am blessed with. Though they sanctioned only half of that, around Rs. 500 crore, it was a shot in our arm to go full speed ahead with our expansion plans. After the ICICI episode, I had also made up my mind to de-risk the entire operation, by never relying on any one fund source. Temasek’s debt participation provided the visibility, and one by one, the others came, and we welcomed most of them. Celebrity PE funds like Sequoia, Capital World, and others.
What about the Indian response?
Some Indian institutions like HDFC Bank were quick to support us after this, following the foreign PE funds. But nationalized banks again proved difficult, even though we weren’t too hungry for their support. But once SBI chipped in with a handsome infusion, almost all PSBs and the smaller private banks were eager to fund. Today, the situation is so favourable that I can pick up the phone and ask my CFO to arrange significant funds, even on an emergency basis. But we don’t do that often as we haven’t still availed almost half of our net sanctioned amount, and we are very particular now about the cost of funds. Still, arriving at this situation, after all those tough years, has been something of an achievement.
To what do you attribute this kind of acceptance among institutional investors, especially from abroad?
I think this has much to do with the post-2008 financial situation across the globe. Before the recession, it was a case of mindless financing. Post recession, institutions, especially from abroad are hunting for secure financing. When they stumbled upon this gold loan business, they were pleasantly surprised. Here was the most secure of all loans – more secure than corporate loans, home loans, or vehicle loans. They were surprised to know that the major percentile of our loans were sub Rs. 20,000 and for periods as low as three months. Our NPAs are negligible, less than even 0.5%.
Going forward, what is the model you have in mind? Will you be working for conversion to a regular bank, much like Kotak Mahindra?
There was a time when I had my eye on the Kotak model. They were the first successful conversion of an NBFC into a bank. Owing to our good corporate governance and execution capabilities, we almost have an invitation to be a bank from some of the authorities. But nowadays we have realized that there is a better model to follow, especially if you keep shareholder value in mind. Compare what happened to Kotak and Shriram Transport Finance over the same timeframe, that is, after Kotak became a bank. Shriram could grow their assets under management much faster than Kotak. The reason is simple – while Kotak had to develop multiple competencies to succeed as a bank, Shriram became more and more adept at their core competence. A full-fledged bank has so many concerns like meeting priority sector targets and so on. Shriram’s performance is all the more outstanding when you remember that Kotak’s core skills was in financing new vehicles, while Shriram’s continue to be the non-glamorous secondhand vehicle finance. Our core competence is in gold loans, and if we shed that to become a bank, our shareholder value may be eroded. It won’t be good for our customers too, as now we are the masters of this service.
That still leaves another model to emulate isn’t it? I mean the HDFC Bank model…
Definitely. That is one model that Manappuram Group is open to. HDFC could promote HDFC Bank (BSE: 500180, NSE: HDFCBANK) as a separate entity, each highly successful in their respective realms, and with no need to go for reverse-mergers like how ICICI and IDBI (BSE: 500116, NSE: IDBI) had to undergo. That model will also eliminate our concerns regarding diluting our ownership for the sake of being a bank.
How will be Manappuram’s growth, going forward? Won’t it be tough matching the last few years’ performance? Don’t you expect competition to catch up soon? Manappuram expects to grow 60% YoY over the next 6 to 7 years. The principal reason is that only a tiny fraction of the nation’s domestic gold reserves have been pledged so far. Coming to competition, yes, we expect some catch-up to happen, but again whether we will have distinctive growth solely depends on whether we can continue the innovation. You will be surprised to know that we were the first company in India to advertise a loan, back in the 80s. Yes, even before ICICI & HDFC. That time people thought that I was mad. Loans were things people begged for, not marketed before them, was the line of thought then among banks and even NBFCs. Later, when gold loans caught up, we differentiated ourselves with tailor-made loan products. For example, using products, we addressed our main competitors, which were banks and individual financiers. One group focused on loan-to-value and other on interest-rate. So we created two families of products, addressing each, and thus catering to individual customer tastes. However, going forward, we will be focusing on enlarging the whole gold loan market, rather than creating a niche for ourselves.
That sounds interesting…
Yes, it is, and hopefully this will mark our entry into an even faster growth orbit. Today, gold loan still has a taboo in this country. For some it is the last resort, and for others it is not in their radar at all. But we believe that this is not fair on gold or its power. Many people, especially small-scale businessmen, go for funds from unorganized sector at 10 times or more interest rates than what we can offer them. Through a publicity campaign across the country that will feature celebrity testimonials, we will deliver this message – you have a power within, the power of gold, that you can decide to unleash. We have roped in stars like Akshay Kumar, Mohanlal, Vikram, & Venkatesh, to deliver testimonial ads about this hidden funding power of gold. We won’t be asking the celebrities to endorse Manappuram, but to endorse this funding source. The objective is on growing the entire gold loan segment, and not on inviting customers only to Manappuram. We realize that no business can go on growing endlessly without increasing its social relevance. We have also launched gold-overdraft type schemes that can deliver better than what a few banks are offering through their Gold OD offers.
You have recently ventured into gold retailing. What is the motivation?
There are two reasons for this diversification. The main is that we could excel as an NBFC because we could rewrite the rules, thus paving for honest practices and good governance. Gold retailing is one such field where now honesty and professionalism take a back seat. We are confident that we can enter this game and rewrite the rules. We are applying our transparent accounting and good corporate governance in our gold jewellery business, with 100% BIS gold, and 100% billing. The company also expects to go for its IPO and get listed, by 2015. The other obvious reason is that owing to our background, we know too much about gold. That kind of knowledge is a comfort in business.
Are you planning any other diversification or expansion for Manappuram?
We are starting a new corporate office in Mumbai BKC, and a 60,000 sq ft new headquarters and data centre in Valappad, Thrissur. Personally, my other business interests include microfinance and affordable housing finance. As a Group, we have our eyes on a few sectors like equity broking, but nothing is finalized yet.
Born and brought up against adversities, do you expect a smooth ride for Manappuram Group?
No business can expect that. The rules and dynamics of businesses will keep on changing. There will be challenges emerging. But as a professional organization employing scores of CAs, ICWAs, MBAs, & Engineers, having a professional Board, and having a professional top leadership for which merit and performance are the only concerns, we are confident of overcoming all challenges. We don’t intend to lose the trust of our customers, shareholders, associates, or any other stakeholders.
“Growth is in Our DNA”
Managing Director of Manappuram, I Unnikrishnan is a Chartered Accountant by training, and has been a Group veteran, having joined decades back as its first CA. This unassuming, seemingly light-hearted leader shares some rare insights into the Group’s and its Founder VP Nandakumar’s strategies:
Your Chairman states that you are brilliant. Do you share that view on him, and is it just because this is a mutual admiration circle?
No role for mutual admiration here. He only values merit, and growing up with him, I too have imbibed this merit-only value system. This is not only with me, that is how all the top leaders including our Joint MD, CFO, and others have evolved.
What do you find brilliant in Chairman Nandakumar?
His visions are always larger-than-life. And this has been the case when we were tiny, when we were small, and now when we are mid-sized. I am sure he will push on and think bigger, even when we are really big. That is what has been driving our growth. Thinking about other strengths, he is an excellent communicator, which as you know, translates to excellent marketing, and he is also extremely fast in thinking and execution.
How is he in delegating, grooming, empowering employees?
He believes in people, bets on them, and extends their capabilities. There have been so many examples here, even I am one. If someone is willing to run at his speed, Chairman takes him or her under his fold. But it is very challenging.
Being headquartered at a remote village in Kerala, which is more difficult – attracting talent or retaining talent?
Both are challenging. Attrition is not an issue at higher levels, but maybe at the entry level, which is the case at all companies. But we have created our own value propositions like sponsoring for MBA education. Growth prospects are also very good for performers as merit is the only consideration.
Will Manappuram remain at Valappad or are you moving to Mumbai?
You heard right, we are creating a corporate office annexe at Bandra Kurla Complex in Mumbai. But this will remain. In fact, we are creating a new headquarters cum data centre here. It will span eight floors and 60,000 sq ft, will be centrally air-conditioned, and will be the command and control centre integrating our 1100 branches across the country.
Friday, June 4, 2010
What is Hot Now – Stocks, Gold, SIP, or Smart Money?
We can mistake a fly for a mosquito, but can we mistake a fly for an elephant? Financial wizards around the world would like us to believe that – that a fly can also be an elephant, that too at the same time.
Nobody knows how to size up problems. Be it Europe, Goldman, Gold Boom, or China. But analyses have no end. The day Sensex is down, it is due to Euro concerns, and the next day when Sensex is up, it is due to Euro concerns easing, and the next day when again Sensex is down, it is again due to…you got it. Many among us were once bewildered from where Sensex or Nifty got its daily opening cue. There are those pundits on business channels and brokerages who always got this opening correct, though you would lose money on almost all of their daily bets. We were genuinely impressed. Later, we came to know that Sensex and Nifty opens up or down solely on how Dow Jones and NASDAQ had closed, that is, around 6 AM Indian Standard Time. But what if they had an ambiguous close? One could always rely on how the Asian Markets opened around 8 AM IST - the Japanese Nikkei and the Chinese Hang Seng or Shanghai Composite.
And how does the Sensex or Nifty decide how to close? Half way through the session, they can look forward to how Europe opens, that is, around 12 to 1 PM IST. But the funny thing is from where Europe gets it opening cue. It looks at how Nikkei, Hang Seng, Sensex, & Nifty opened up! Things get funnier around 6 PM IST, when NYSE & NASDAQ opens again, taking cue from – you guessed it right – how Nikkei, Hang Seng, Sensex, & Nifty closed, and how London FTSE, and European CAC & DAX are faring! It is indeed one big merry-go-round.
With this background in mind it was really funny to see how two respected institutional analysts predicted the immediate future for world and Indian markets. One saw the Sensex resuming its northwards journey and reaching 22,000 soon, while the other saw the key index dropping rapidly to reach 14,000 and fall further. Since there is only one market and only one Sensex both of them can’t be right. Or wrong, for that matter. But more interesting were the reasons behind their outlook. The bull saw only Western equities as falling, money flooding to treasuries and gold for safety temporarily, and money – hungry to grow - flowing again to China and India in a big way. The bear saw all equities as falling, money avoiding the big treasuries as they are already hit by sovereign debt, gold rising, and exports of China and India getting hit in a big way, and the world GDP and indices falling.
Both outlooks at least agreed on one thing. The so-called Smart Money is finding it increasingly difficult to get itself parked. Smart money doesn’t include your money or my money. The money we spend, save, and invest should really be called by the antonym, stupid money. Smart money is the big-time institutional money that wants to grow by 1%, 5%, or 10% - not yearly or monthly – but weekly, or daily if possible. You will often hear analysts trying to find where smart money is headed. Markets and retail investors will be headed one way, and smart money would often be headed the other way round using complex instruments like derivatives, futures, and hedges, ultimately upsetting all the stupid money’s calculations. Better put, grabbing the stupid money, and increasing the size and smartness of smart money even further.
It was interesting to know how the US Government stumbled upon Goldman’s smartness. Prompted by some cue, US SEC had inspected the company’s day trading records. For over 100 consecutive trading days, the firm hadn’t made a single loss. Now, that is pretty interesting, as anyone who has done even a bit of day trading would attest. Smart money players are now crying hoarse that Obama is all out to kill smart money. They may have a case, as he is personally the poorest American President in over five and a half decades, and as such, may be oblivious to the pains of the superrich. Though not as poor as Obama, Angela Merkel is also unconcerned about smart money hurting. Unable to drill any sense into the thick heads of her European counterparts, she forced German bourses to abruptly ban naked short sales in key financial stocks and government bonds. When smarties protested, she threatened to follow it up with a fiercer exchange-wide ban.
But back home, NSE found the time opportune to introduce short sales for the first time in India. Until now, the country had only intraday shorting. The NSE idea is to introduce shorting as it is done in the developed markets, that is, across days, weeks, or even months. Though not the naked version, there is no reason why extended shorting should be introduced at this stage. From the investors’ standpoint there isn’t absolutely any reason to have this, as traders with deep pockets are sure to exploit this by crashing markets. But from NSE’s standpoint it is great, as the trading volumes and their commissions would swell. However, the fact that an institution like NSE – promoted by some of the largest Indian financial institutions like LIC - is attempting this, right under the nose of SEBI and Finance Minister, is cause for concern.
The question is whether the NSE too is expecting a rout in the coming weeks, and wants to protect its interests by introducing shorting? Eerily, it was learnt sometime back that Goldman Sachs too had taken a stake in NSE. Make no mistake, exchanges and brokerages are perfect smart money players, even though they are great facilitators too.
Smart money, however, has met its match when it tried to be smart with Indian entrepreneurs. Indian realty and power sectors have shown that they can be smarter than international smart money. For example, you cannot make head or tails of companies like Unitech & Suzlon and their results. Unitech, India’s second largest listed realty player has been successful in attracting high-profile international smart money for long, and investors of all sizes have been waiting with bated breath for this once-record-setting wealth-creator to surge again. But Unitech is keeping the cards close to its heart, with yearly net dipping by 44% and quarterly net surging by 44 times. So that the hope goes on, and even smart money should wait endlessly here. The pre-result P/E is 44.45 years, and that also means a yearly yield of 2.25%, less than half of an SB account. And Suzlon has only P, and no E for almost the last two years.
Retail investors would do well to keep in mind that nothing much changes for a business between one quarterly result to the next. Of course, there can be new order wins for the company intra-quarter, but even then there is no need for this daily frenzy. As Buffet once famously remarked, after making an investment he would like the stock-markets to close for five years, and then open again to reflect the fundamental growth. The only thing that changes every day, every minute, and even every second, is the money flow. Smart money flowing in and out, trying to take away your stupid money too, thereby getting smarter.
But don’t even take Warren Buffet as a role model. He has recently bet his reputation by backing Goldman, solely because his $5 billion is there. That Buffet is appreciating such practices indicates the spread and reach of smartness. Our own Buffet, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala has a golden rule when asked about how to pick stocks. Never pick stocks with a significant institutional holding, especially of the FII kind, he says. In other words, smart money. But considering the past six month’s performance of some Indian scrips, it is better to extend his theory a bit – don’t invest in anything with Jhunjhunwala in it. Persons grow into institutions, over time.
Then you are sure to hear about how wonderful it would be to SIP in these uncertain times. Believe it or not, there is scientific proof that Systematic Investment Plans works only to the investors’ advantage when the markets are sliding and nearing their bottoms. It is a great alternative to determining whether the bottom has reached, but a strict no-no in these uncertain times.
Nobody knows how to size up problems. Be it Europe, Goldman, Gold Boom, or China. But analyses have no end. The day Sensex is down, it is due to Euro concerns, and the next day when Sensex is up, it is due to Euro concerns easing, and the next day when again Sensex is down, it is again due to…you got it. Many among us were once bewildered from where Sensex or Nifty got its daily opening cue. There are those pundits on business channels and brokerages who always got this opening correct, though you would lose money on almost all of their daily bets. We were genuinely impressed. Later, we came to know that Sensex and Nifty opens up or down solely on how Dow Jones and NASDAQ had closed, that is, around 6 AM Indian Standard Time. But what if they had an ambiguous close? One could always rely on how the Asian Markets opened around 8 AM IST - the Japanese Nikkei and the Chinese Hang Seng or Shanghai Composite.
And how does the Sensex or Nifty decide how to close? Half way through the session, they can look forward to how Europe opens, that is, around 12 to 1 PM IST. But the funny thing is from where Europe gets it opening cue. It looks at how Nikkei, Hang Seng, Sensex, & Nifty opened up! Things get funnier around 6 PM IST, when NYSE & NASDAQ opens again, taking cue from – you guessed it right – how Nikkei, Hang Seng, Sensex, & Nifty closed, and how London FTSE, and European CAC & DAX are faring! It is indeed one big merry-go-round.
With this background in mind it was really funny to see how two respected institutional analysts predicted the immediate future for world and Indian markets. One saw the Sensex resuming its northwards journey and reaching 22,000 soon, while the other saw the key index dropping rapidly to reach 14,000 and fall further. Since there is only one market and only one Sensex both of them can’t be right. Or wrong, for that matter. But more interesting were the reasons behind their outlook. The bull saw only Western equities as falling, money flooding to treasuries and gold for safety temporarily, and money – hungry to grow - flowing again to China and India in a big way. The bear saw all equities as falling, money avoiding the big treasuries as they are already hit by sovereign debt, gold rising, and exports of China and India getting hit in a big way, and the world GDP and indices falling.
Both outlooks at least agreed on one thing. The so-called Smart Money is finding it increasingly difficult to get itself parked. Smart money doesn’t include your money or my money. The money we spend, save, and invest should really be called by the antonym, stupid money. Smart money is the big-time institutional money that wants to grow by 1%, 5%, or 10% - not yearly or monthly – but weekly, or daily if possible. You will often hear analysts trying to find where smart money is headed. Markets and retail investors will be headed one way, and smart money would often be headed the other way round using complex instruments like derivatives, futures, and hedges, ultimately upsetting all the stupid money’s calculations. Better put, grabbing the stupid money, and increasing the size and smartness of smart money even further.
It was interesting to know how the US Government stumbled upon Goldman’s smartness. Prompted by some cue, US SEC had inspected the company’s day trading records. For over 100 consecutive trading days, the firm hadn’t made a single loss. Now, that is pretty interesting, as anyone who has done even a bit of day trading would attest. Smart money players are now crying hoarse that Obama is all out to kill smart money. They may have a case, as he is personally the poorest American President in over five and a half decades, and as such, may be oblivious to the pains of the superrich. Though not as poor as Obama, Angela Merkel is also unconcerned about smart money hurting. Unable to drill any sense into the thick heads of her European counterparts, she forced German bourses to abruptly ban naked short sales in key financial stocks and government bonds. When smarties protested, she threatened to follow it up with a fiercer exchange-wide ban.
But back home, NSE found the time opportune to introduce short sales for the first time in India. Until now, the country had only intraday shorting. The NSE idea is to introduce shorting as it is done in the developed markets, that is, across days, weeks, or even months. Though not the naked version, there is no reason why extended shorting should be introduced at this stage. From the investors’ standpoint there isn’t absolutely any reason to have this, as traders with deep pockets are sure to exploit this by crashing markets. But from NSE’s standpoint it is great, as the trading volumes and their commissions would swell. However, the fact that an institution like NSE – promoted by some of the largest Indian financial institutions like LIC - is attempting this, right under the nose of SEBI and Finance Minister, is cause for concern.
The question is whether the NSE too is expecting a rout in the coming weeks, and wants to protect its interests by introducing shorting? Eerily, it was learnt sometime back that Goldman Sachs too had taken a stake in NSE. Make no mistake, exchanges and brokerages are perfect smart money players, even though they are great facilitators too.
Smart money, however, has met its match when it tried to be smart with Indian entrepreneurs. Indian realty and power sectors have shown that they can be smarter than international smart money. For example, you cannot make head or tails of companies like Unitech & Suzlon and their results. Unitech, India’s second largest listed realty player has been successful in attracting high-profile international smart money for long, and investors of all sizes have been waiting with bated breath for this once-record-setting wealth-creator to surge again. But Unitech is keeping the cards close to its heart, with yearly net dipping by 44% and quarterly net surging by 44 times. So that the hope goes on, and even smart money should wait endlessly here. The pre-result P/E is 44.45 years, and that also means a yearly yield of 2.25%, less than half of an SB account. And Suzlon has only P, and no E for almost the last two years.
Retail investors would do well to keep in mind that nothing much changes for a business between one quarterly result to the next. Of course, there can be new order wins for the company intra-quarter, but even then there is no need for this daily frenzy. As Buffet once famously remarked, after making an investment he would like the stock-markets to close for five years, and then open again to reflect the fundamental growth. The only thing that changes every day, every minute, and even every second, is the money flow. Smart money flowing in and out, trying to take away your stupid money too, thereby getting smarter.
But don’t even take Warren Buffet as a role model. He has recently bet his reputation by backing Goldman, solely because his $5 billion is there. That Buffet is appreciating such practices indicates the spread and reach of smartness. Our own Buffet, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala has a golden rule when asked about how to pick stocks. Never pick stocks with a significant institutional holding, especially of the FII kind, he says. In other words, smart money. But considering the past six month’s performance of some Indian scrips, it is better to extend his theory a bit – don’t invest in anything with Jhunjhunwala in it. Persons grow into institutions, over time.
Then you are sure to hear about how wonderful it would be to SIP in these uncertain times. Believe it or not, there is scientific proof that Systematic Investment Plans works only to the investors’ advantage when the markets are sliding and nearing their bottoms. It is a great alternative to determining whether the bottom has reached, but a strict no-no in these uncertain times.
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Coal India IPO on Track, Promises to be Like No Other

That this is the biggest IPO ever is not the only claim to fame. Coal India’s IPO is woven around a set of unique strengths that no other offering can hope to match, Indian or foreign. Investment bankers and investors around the world are already sitting up and taking notice of this one mega issue unfolding.
Secondary markets maybe going berserk due to international concerns, but Coal India IPO is not only on track for August-September, but promises to be like no other.
While initial reports had highlighted the fact that Coal India’s is going to be the largest Indian IPO ever, more and more unique aspects are evolving that shed light on this IPO’s inherent strengths.
Usually IPOs are big business opportunities for investment banks, with Indian IPOs garnering 3-5% of the total issue size as fees for the banks managing the IPO. But this time around, this largest Rs. 12,500 crore IPO will only bring in Rs. 12,500 only to the the six banks short-listed for the purpose. The reason? For major merchant banks, this IPO is too hot to miss.
The bidding just got too hot with Citigroup going in for a Rs. 1 for Rs. 1 crore offer, and other international majors like DSP Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, & Deutsche Bank, as well as Indian institutions like Enam Financials and Kotak Mahindra Capital matching the offer, that works out to a mere 0.000001% fees. It goes without saying that all of them would have quoted zero fees, but then it would have been technically illegal.
Indeed, as per some estimates, each participating bank is expected to tolerate a loss of Rs. 2 crore to make sure that this IPO is a success. From this, one can guess how valuable is this IPO compared with many hard-pushed private sector IPOs which the banks view as just another business for them.
Coal India is also getting a huge support from the Coal Ministry, with Minister of State for Coal, Sriprakash Jaiswal pressing Union Cabinet for awarding Maharatna status to this now Navaratna company. Maharatna status will give Coal India a stature and visibility that is now enjoyed by listed PSU giants like ONGC, NTPC, IOC, & SAIL. It will also allow Coal India to invest up to Rs. 5000 crore or 15% of its own net-worth in a project without asking government’s permission, which means an almost autonomous operation.
With such support from international financial institutions and Government, Coal India is leaving no stone unturned to make this IPO uniquely successful. Chairman Partha S Bhattacharyya is taking special interest in ensuring that the company’s employees get the best deal out of the ESPO that is clubbed with this IPO. To make this a success, Coal India is creating 4 lakh demat accounts for its employee base, and even arranging for low cost loans so that they can subscribe effectively for the 10% shares reserved for them. Through such unprecedented moves, Chairman Bhattacharyya is confident of winning the endorsement of trade unions.
Coal India and its investment bankers are now busy fixing the modalities of the issue including its price. Companies comparable to Coal India are non-existent in India, and rare even in the whole world. The best available comparisons are USA’s Peabody Energy and China’s Shenhua Energy. But even these giants are no comparison, as, while Peabody holds 9 billions tonnes of coal reserve and Shenhua holds 7 billion tonnes, Coal India’s reserves are the world’s largest at 63 billion tonnes.
The profit margins are also much better in Coal India, even better than Peabody, even while these giants complain that Coal India is subsidizing its product nearly 50%, compared to world coal prices. It is a remarkable performance indeed as no organization or the government is bleeding money due to this pricing, in contrast to what the oil PSUs are undergoing. The company is having a 30% operating profit margin.
Coal India is also moving aggressively to address the fact that Indian coal is somewhat inferior in quality to the international one, by investing heavily in a washing process. International giants are in fact watching this development with concern, as the company plans to sell washed coal at a significant discount to comparable quality international coal.
Though being a monopoly is seen as an advantage in the capital markets, Chairman Bhattacharyya wants no such advantage and points out to the fact that due to the recent partial privatization of the sector, many corporates are having captive coal blocks, at least a couple of them having the size of one of Coal India subsidiary’s blocks.
Coal India IPO is also likely to do well on the green front, unlike some private sector mining companies of the country that have attracted investor wrath in the West recently. In the geographies that they operate, the company has been noted for its significant green initiatives.
The issue is likely to be priced around Rs. 200 with a possibility for 15% appreciation in the near term. But the real attraction is in the medium-term to long-term as Coal India has definitive plans to double its output. And the beauty is that even then it can’t hope to match the demand for coal.
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