5 Reasons why Dhoni may Pooh-pooh Sreesanth

By Carl Jaison.

Most cricket enthusiasts and pundits find Sreesanth a hot topic to debate on. Isn’t it better to leave the poor guy alone and find a Sachin or a Yuvraj to argue upon? Ah! the obvious retort would be a crisp 'NO'. And that is where this Malayali speedster has made a name for himself. He has performed magic and even antics that even the best would fear to replicate. He is the media’s dream guy so much so that news channels dedicate umpteen hours of their time on breeding him into a controversial figure. The funny part is that Sree isn’t least bothered about what people speak about him, but is more concerned on what people should speak about him. There lies a deep belief among many that Sree can be India’s history maker but in order to be a part of history, you must involve in the present. But for all those who think that Sreesanth is history maker, there are others who think that Sree is already history. Here are 5 reasons why Dhoni may still pooh-pooh Sreesanth:

 

1) He isn’t a Zaheer!

Sreesanth is Sreesanth and that very fact may lead to his ouster. His wicket-taking abilities have now become a big question mark. But derailing his career is not the solution. If picked, everyone will be pinning on him to do a Zaheer. But he lacks the patience and class of the latter and that may go just against him.

2) His actions speak even louder than words!

Perhaps the only one who can control and motivate Sree is himself. But realization of your mistakes is prime before any rectification. This is one thing Sree finds hard to think upon. His mad-man stature and wayward behaviour may cause Dhoni to think twice before his insertion. Controlling emotion doesn’t seem to be part of Sree’s personal memorandum. If only his bowling did the talking would Dhoni ,without hesitation, draft him in.

3) Not the lovable-kind!

He isn’t touted as a hero like his fancied team-mates and that may turn the tables on him. From past incidents, one thing is for sure: Sree isn’t the most popular one in the Indian dressing room. To sledge Sachin who has achieved everything surely isn’t child’s play and he may be among the very few bowlers in the world to do such a blatant thing. Reports say that he celebrated wildly after getting rid of Dhoni in an IPL game, leading many to wonder whether he had actually dismissed a Pakistani. Such was his jubilation! But no one would dare take him on. That is the power of Sree!

4) With Sree there, impossible is nothing!

What do you get if you place two controversial starlets just inches way from each other? IPL Slapgate! The atmosphere for the semi-final war between India and Pakistan is already electrifying and a probable Sreesanth selection would mean adding more  oil to fire . Dhoni, presumably, is sick and tired of Sree’s onfield drama that he would go by his conscience of not playing him. And the skipper, solely, is the reason for Sree’s miserable situation. Dhoni must realize that the more you are aware of the past, the better prepared you are for the future and Sree has numerous examples to gasconade about his utility for the team.

5) The dreaded 5-53 against Bangla tigers!

Sree is being analysed only the basis of his dismal rigmarole in the opening game of the World Cup where he leaked 53 runs in the 5 overs he was accorded to. In that case then no Indian bowler deserve to be a part of the team selection. Dhoni has missed a trick by not playing Sree, who even though is capricious, can sneak in a wicket or two. Five overs isn’t an apt basis on which a bowler is passed into the black list . Dhoni will rue his mistake of not playing him thereafter, if Sree comes up with a sparkling performance against Pakistan. But one numeral will haunt him for the rest of his life and the same is the  reason why Dhoni will look beyond him - the dreaded 5-53!

Will Dhoni Vouch for Sreesanth?

By Carl Jaison.

One man who hasn’t been part of India’s World Cup scheme of things is the mercurial bowler, Shanthakumaran Sreesanth. It waits to be seen whether Dhoni would give him the go ahead. Going by his performance in the opening game against Bangladesh, Sreesanth will have to prove a mighty lot to come into contention. Somewhere there is a feeling among many that Sreesanth would be the deciding factor on the big day. With his raw pace along with his skilfulness with the ball may prompt the team to rope in this fiery Kerala pacer.

In or out, Sreesanth’s support for the team off the field has been tremendous. As witnessed  on television screens, he can be seen  running in with Gatorade bottles and towels so as to freshen up his team-mates during intervals. When Zaheer was undoubtedly out of fuel, the hospitality provided by the young man is worth taking note of. Even when he steams into bowl, he has that burning desire and confidence written all over his face.

Known to be a temperamental pacer, Sree is just a game away from striking form. One match isn’t enough to prove his mettle and Dhoni must take a beating for ignoring the pacer for the rest of the matches, where India struggled to go with a  good bowling combination, with only Zaheer coming up with spectacular performances throughout. So taking this into consideration, Sreesanth may fancy his chances for tomorrow.

With the Mohali wicket known to have a bit of grass and bounce, Sreesanth can reap rich dividends if utilized efficiently. But it still waits to be seen whether he would make the cut. Morever, having Sreesanth in the team lends more balance to the side, which is struggling to bowl out teams. But one question that will linger in Dhoni’s mind is: Is Sreesanth worth the gamble? Going by his gambling nature, chances are high that Sreesanth will be seen partnering Zaheer with the new ball tomorrow.

Ideally, Sreesanth is the most suitable partner for Zaheer . Simply because he does what Zaheer wants him to do . Sree is a  natural outswing bowler, having a good seam position, and moves the bowl away from the right-hander. This is exactly what Zaheer expects him to do. And what Zaheer would do is to try getting the bowl into the right-hander, that is, swing it in. So with Sree bowling in tandem with him, Zaheer can hope to grab more wickets as the batsmen would be hoping for him to bowl the outswinger but he slips in an inswinger and can get the batsman caught napping.

Combination and skill should be looked upon, not  just past performance. Take the case of Nehra. He bowls the same stock delivery as Zaheer, so evidently Zaheer wouldn’t get much purchase if bowling along with him. While Munaf hardly swings the bowl in or out, Sreesanth seems a viable but risky option.

Sree can go for runs unlike the latter but as history shows all high economy rate bowlers have been prolific wicket-takers. He can be India’s surprise package for tomorrow’s big day as not many teams have analyzed upon him.

With Sreeanth in the team, the match may turn out interesting as his antics have received world-wide recognition, even if with distaste. What the common man can do is to keep his fingers crossed on tomorrow’s selection dilemmas and hope Sreesanth is the one who can take India to a historical finale on the 2nd of April. 

The Other Semi-Final of WC Cricket

By Carl Jaison

Seriously folks, as the cynosure of all eyes would be on the script of Super Wednesday, it seems even the greats of the gentleman’s game have completely omitted from their minds a game that isn’t as flashy and hyped-about  as it’s succeeding one. Casual as it may seem, the above reference to the match as  a game clearly reveals the lack of spiciness involved in the first of the semi-finals to be played between the Lankan Lions and Kiwis. But with utmost respect, the game isn’t matching the wow and masala factor to be credited as a potential semi-final thriller. However, the fans of the respective teams would be hoping for a debacle to miracle.

Even as the two teams come face-to-face at the R. Premadasa Stadium, Colombo today, the minds of  all would be wandering at the next days mother-of-all-cricketing-battles. Maybe, just maybe, this would help the Lankans and  Kiwis to tighten their screws and gear up to the task of making the cricketing world realize that this match is no ‘silent spectator’ to Wednesday’s unfolding. The game has lost its charm because of the shock exit of South Africa which makes life easier for Sri Lanka, as they take on a less-menacing New Zealanders.

The first semi was predicted to be a face-off between the Chokers and the Lankans, but following the humiliating defeat of the former, Sri Lanka’s road to Mumbai would be cut short. Underestimating the Kiwis would be a sin of commission as they proved that they are giant-killers. But playing Sri Lanka in Sri lanka isn’t sweet sugar. If Kiwis miss a trick or two they are up for a sound thrashing at the hands of the previous edition’s losing finalists. Sri Lanka, having the likes of big match players in their ranks go into the match as strong favourites and their convincing victory in the quarter final against England underlines their unmatched supremacy.

On the other hand, one must take note that once a  party-pooper, will always remain a party-pooper and that’s just what the Kiwis will have in their main agenda: to spoil the Lankan celebrations. Easy to say, but hard to make an impact, Kiwis task will be cut out and any minute error here and there would cost them dearly. Many feel New Zealand must thank their stars for a place in the semis as not many billed them as title favourites. But that doesn’t underlie the fact that Kiwis are rubber-ducks. On their day they pose a notorious scare to any team that stands in their way. This is very evident from Sri Lankan captain Kumar Sangakkara’s description about their opposite number as being a team  that they wouldn’t take lightly and reaches out to his team-mates saying to give them respect and put up a good fighting display to book a ticket for Saturday’s mega finale.

New Zealand , however, is still haunted by semi-final ghosts as they have failed to make a cut to the finals in as many as 6 attempts. Keeping all the equations and speculations in mind, New Zealand are in for an even bigger scare if  by chance they crumble once again before the final hurdle. But what most worries former Sri Lanka’s world cup winning skipper, Arjuna Ranbatunga is the lack of quality matches played by the Lankans and the under-performance of their middle-order bats. True to say, by far, the Lankans haven’t been tested to their maximum. But the very tension-filled, semi-final atmosphere will surely make Sri Lanka pull up their socks and put up their best act yet. The Lankan middle order hasn’t had exposure to the crunch match situations and this has been the prime concern of the team management.

One small stutter means the Kiwis would pounce on the Lions (literally, what an irony!) and sent them back to their dens packing. But what the Kiwis will be most wary of is Malinga’s ‘Slinga’ delivery and responsible resistance shown by their skipper and vice captain, Mahela Jayawardena. Murali too can spring a surprise or two by pressurizing opposition with dot balls which would lead them to self-destruct.

Even Sri Lanka will find the magic of the charismatic and saintly Kiwi skipper, Daniel Vettori, difficult to penetrate. Jesse Ryder, Jacob Oram and their best bet, Ross Taylor, can cause havoc to Lanka’s chances of a smooth victory.

Nevertheless, the possibility of a one-sided drubbing is wide open but this match is surely isn’t dead rubber. This would be New Zealand’s best chance yet as they come into the match high on confidence and determination boasting of a stunning win over South Africa. As far as Sri Lanka is concerned, it’s now or never because Jayawardene, Murali, and Samaraweera are on their last legs and would definitely want to put up a splendid show before calling it a day.

Oozing the confidence from previous wins is very important  in such high-octane clashes as playing to your strengths holds the key to success. A victory in the limited 100 overs would provide a berth in the dug-outs of the Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai, and this just means a touching distance from reaching out for glory.

WC Cricket Semi - Why India Should Fear Pakistan

By Carl Jaison

This one isn’t for the faint-hearted. A match tipped to be the greatest ever played between the two arch rivals, has already been in the limelight for it’s high-volatile atmosphere, both on and off the field. When India’s man of the moment, Dr. Manmohan Singh meets his counterpart, the two cricket-mad nations will lock horns in a mouth-watering clash, where only  the fittest will survive.

Little does the Indian nation know that this Pakistani outfit aren’t pushovers. The team that absorbs pressure the best will emerge victorious. This will go down as a match where there will be no room for error and where the emotional aspect comes into play.

Both teams are on the backdrop of remarkable victories thereby making this encounter a must-witnessed one. The pre-match pressure has been enormous and the whole nation has taken this match into deep patriotic feelings.

But the sorry part is that only one will rule the roost and the other will face extreme humiliation and a breakdown of tears. Such has been the build-up to this much-anticipated clash between two cricketing giants having the political and geographical scenario between the two well etched in one’s mind.

But what makes this ‘once in a life-time match' so watched out for? Definitely because it is an Indo-Pak match-up and the thrilling part being that it is a serious World Cup Semi Final showdown. Wednesday’s clash is destined to become an opportunity for one of the two teams to retain the support of fans after their disappointing exits in the previous World Cup.

By far the best match yet, India will have to buckle up their resources in order to put brakes on a rampaging Pakistani team. Uncertainty in result is the key feature of this game. However the hope is that it doesn’t turn out to be a damp-squib and that there will be a fighting effort from both sides. A possible shock news headline looms large and both would like to ensure that the other will face some amount of competition, if not better. 

This time around, possibly, India will face the heat especially because of the fact that Pakistan is fine-tuned in all their departments. If India wants to escape casualty then the following areas need to be pondered upon:
 

The Afridi Factor

Arguably, he has been the best performing captain in this world cup indicated clearly by his wicket tally (21), the most by a bowler as yet. Added to that his creativity in leadership and gambling nature makes him a potent force to deal with. His quickish, fiesty leg-breaks have been the nightmares of many a batsmen and his uncanny knack of picking up wickets when the situation demands, instills fear even  amongst the best in business. Shahid Afridi has been the binding force behind the team's overall success. He will be a hard nut to crack.

Spin Winners 

Pakistani spinners are spin wineers, very much in contrast to the performance of the Indian spinners. While Pakistani tweakers have come to the fore with match winning credentials, their counterparts are struggling for wickets even on helpful sub-continental turf pitches. Afridi, Ajmal, Rehman and even part-timer Hafeez have been among the wicket-takers, while India can only boast of the best bowling figures for them and that too by a non-regular, Yuvraj Singh.

Cool Gul

Not one bowler, not even the Lee’s and Steyn’s , have used the swing to good effect like Umar Gul has. A strike bowler of his nature has the ability to swing the bowl both ways and is a brilliant exponent of reverse swing and toe-crushing Yorkers. Indians may find it tough to come to terms with his bowling largely because now Gul is a changed and consistent bowler which was not the case a year or so back.

Deserving Finalists

Yes, this is very much true. Pakistan has put up stellar performances than India in this WC edition. Their complacency may get the better of them, take the example of their group match against New Zealand where they squandered a potential victory and proved their 'unpredictable' tag right. But the way they fought back with convincing wins over Australia and West Indies makes them a dominating unit and they will be hoping that their unpredictable nature goes their way.

The Emotional Side

A Pakistani victory will be a fitting to their horrific political and economic condition back home and being the only team to be stripped of international match rights they would want to prove a point that cricket is there to stay in the terror-struck nation. An unstable political environment has resulted in a  negative impact on the sports field with the cricketers getting into all kinds of controversies and allegations. Their trophy showcase is badly in need of a new moulded entrant and of all that Pakistan has suffered and faced in recent years, a victory for Pakistan is bigger than a victory for India. The fans and the cricketing world expects Pakistan to get back to good conditions and the best way to answer the prayers of millions back home is to reach out for glory.

All in all, its going to be a belter of a contest with the Indian batsmen versus the Pakistani bowling going to be the treat for the eye. The battle-lines have been drawn, the bugle blared and a war-situation very much on the cards.

Muthoot Finance IPO - Invest or Wait?

After SKS Microfinance’s IPO that was graded 4/5 on ‘above average fundamentals’, another NBFC IPO graded similarly at 4/5 is appearing soon, of Muthoot Finance Ltd. India’s IPO ratings still avoid the all important question of whether an IPO is value-for-money or expensive, and focus only on assessing the company’s fundamentals. If Muthoot Finance goes ahead as planned to raise Rs. 1200 to Rs. 1400 crore on 5.15 crore shares, the IPO will have to be priced quite expensive at a P/E of 30 to 35 and a P/BV of 12 to 14 times. In comparison,  Manappuram Finance is available at a P/E of 21 and a P/BV of 2.60 times, and Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services is available at a P/E of 16.45 and a P/BV of 4.23 times. Coming to fundamentals, this gold loan sector leader’s CAGR and RoE are impressive, but the Issue has some peculiarities like a sizeable annual royalty favouring promoters, and anti-dilution guarantees to early investors. The IPO also comes amidst a turbulent time for NBFCs in general, and gold loan companies in particular, due to recent RBI regulations.

Kerala headquartered NBFC, Muthoot Finance Ltd, is soon expected to hit the market with their IPO which is pegged at between Rs. 1200 to Rs. 1400 crore.

Muthoot Finance is the flagship company of Muthoot M George Group, and is different from other Muthoot-named Groups like Muthoot Pappachan Group, which already has a listed company in its fold - Muthoot Capital Services Ltd (BSE: 511766) - and the smaller Mini Muthoottu Group. Muthoot is a family name based in Kerala.

Muthoot Finance’s mainstay is gold loans, and with FY’10 revenue of around Rs. 1090 crore, is easily the largest private gold loan company. The nearest private sector competitor and the only listed player now, Manappuram General Finance and Leasing Ltd (BSE: 531213, NSE: MANAPPURAM) had clocked a FY’10 revenue of Rs. 478 crore.

In the long run-up to its IPO, and a few months before filing its DRHP on October 4th of last year, Muthoot Finance had attracted investments from international and domestic private equity players like Matrix Partners, Baring, Kotak, & The Wellcome Trust. Happening between July 23rd and September 23rd, the preferential allotments for these investors were between Rs. 123 and Rs. 173.50 a share.

Muthoot Finance has not yet published its IPO price band, but has indicated that it is planning a pre-IPO placement of 1.41 crore shares at not less than Rs. 123 a share. The pre-IPO placement is sizeable as it amounts to around 27% of the IPO size itself, even though both are mutually exclusive.

The price reference of Rs. 123 appears reasonable on earnings, as it will translate to a pre-issue P/E of 16.20 times, but expensive on NAV, as it will amount to a pre-issue P/BV of 6.34 times. Also, Rs. 123 is just the base, and the pre-IPO placement can be upwards of that, may be even around Rs. 173.50, at which the last preferential allotment took place.

Coming to the IPO itself, Muthoot Finance is planning to offer 5.15 crore shares to raise between Rs. 1200 to Rs. 1400 crore. That works out to a lower and upper price band of Rs. 233 to Rs. 272. Here the Issue turns quite expensive, as at will amount to a P/E of 30 to 35 and a P/BV of 12 to 14 times.

India’s leading NBFCs by market cap like Shriram Transport (BSE: 511218, NSE: SRTRANSFIN), Indiabulls Financial Services (BSE: 532544, NSE: INDIABULLS), HDFC (BSE: 500010, NSE: HDFC), & Reliance Capital (BSE: 500111, NSE: RELCAPITAL) are all available between P/E of 8 to 30 times, and P/BV of 1 to 6 times.

Coming to Muthoot Finance’s own sector of gold loans, Manappuram Finance is available at a P/E of 21 and a P/BV of 2.60 times, while a more diversified player doing gold loans like Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services (BSE: 532720, NSE: M&MFIN) is available at a P/E of 16.45 and a P/BV of 4.23 times.

The planned high valuations might be the reason why Muthoot Finance is offering a discount to retail investors, but this 10% discount is clearly not enough to offset these kind of valuations.

One way before Muthoot Finance to make the valuations better is to divest more than the planned 13.85% stake, or to limit the issue size to much less than the planned Rs. 1200 to Rs. 1400 crore.

However, rating agencies, CRISIL and ICRA have given a 4/5 rating to Muthoot IPO, supposedly indicating its above average fundamentals. The main drivers to this ratings have been the company’s impressive compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 73% during the past three years, and Return on Equity (RoE) of 33.52% on a three-year weighted average basis. But as the rating agencies themselves clarify on all IPO ratings, the ratings are in no way an indication of whether a public issue is value-for-money or expensive.

A recent example is the case of noted NBFC, SKS Microfinance’s (BSE: 533228, NSE: SKSMICRO) IPO, which had a similar rating of 4/5 on supposedly above average fundamentals, but which tumbled to more than 50% of the IPO price on mounting sectoral challenges.

This time also the rating agencies’ take can be extrapolated that fundamentals are strong, and that only the price should be the deciding factor.

Though the stress on price is justified as explained above, there are also some peculiar sector-specific and company-specific aspects to consider in Muthoot Finance’s IPO.

The NBFC sector as a whole has attracted much regulation by RBI during the last couple of months regarding Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) and other aspects, which is prompting even some long-term foreign investors in the sector like TPG (formerly, Texas Pacific Group) to plot exits from relatively safe NBFCs like Shriram Transport.

The niche NBFC sector of gold loans too has attracted stricter regulations these days, especially with the RBI ruling that gold loans can’t be done against bank funds allocated as priority sector / agrarian loans.

Another challenge before gold loan companies has been that despite impressive expansion across India, their Assets Under Management (AUM) continue to be dominated by South India. For example, Muthoot Finance’s AUM is dominated by a 75% participation by their South Indian branches.

In fact, analysts will be keenly watching the Q4 and subsequent quarters of FY’12 to ascertain whether gold loan companies have burned their fingers by trying to expand in North, East, & West of India, where the takers to these kinds of loans are quite low. 

Another risk factor for gold loan companies like Muthoot Finance is the renewed interest by public sector banks and private sector banks in this line of business. Banks still call the shots in business volumes, accounting for more than 58% of organized gold loan business as of FY’10.

PSBs like Indian Overseas Bank (BSE: 532388, NSE: IOB), Indian Bank (BSE: 532814, NSE: INDIANB), State Bank of Travancore (BSE: 532191, NSE: SBT),  and Andhra Bank (BSE: 532418, NSE: ANDHRABANK) , as well as private sector banks like South Indian Bank (BSE: 532218, NSE: SOUTHBANK), Federal Bank (BSE: 500469, NSE: FEDERALBNK), and HDFC Bank (BSE: 500010, NSE: HDFC) have sizeable gold loan portfolios.

Among these banks, PSBs are a particular threat to private gold loan companies, as their agri-gold loans are quite inexpensive for customers, in comparison with private gold loan companies’ lending rates. PSBs have already started giving a big push to agri-gold loans as they are now unable to lend to private gold loan companies for meeting their own priority sector requirements.

These emerging sectoral challenges may adversely affect the CAGR and RoE of Muthoot Finance, going forward.

Going more company specific, Muthoot Finance’s prospectus reveals a few peculiarities that should be of interest to investors.

The DRHP has a royalty clause in favour of promoters for allowing the company to use the Muthoot trademarks, which is fixed at 1% of the annual income, subject to a maximum of 3% of annual profit. For last year, this amounts to around Rs. 7 crore. Muthoot Finance’s net profit for this period was Rs. 228.52 crore. It remains to be seen whether investors would agree to this unconventional clause, which makes them lose this 3% of net profit while computing EPS.

A query sent by Seasonal Magazine to Muthoot Finance, to ascertain the justification for levying this royalty on investors remained unanswered at the time of publishing this article.

The problem is compounded by the fact that it is widely known that the ‘Muthoot’ family name or business name is not exclusive to Muthoot Finance, with three more unconnected groups sharing it, and with at least one of them, Muthoot FinCorp of Muthoot Pappachan Group in the same line of business, gold loans. The interrnet domain muthoot-dot-com also belongs to Muthoot Pappachan Group.

The company also faces a potential problem in its home turf of Kerala, where the Government is coming up with the Kerala Moneylenders’ Act (KML), which gives the state power to limit the interest rates charged by companies like Muthoot Finance. The Act is now pending at Supreme Court, and if passed, might amount to something like the Andhra MFI Ordinance that made SKS Microfinance crash. Muthoot Finance’s portfolio exposure to Kerala market is around 16%.

Another concern in Muthoot Finance’s prospectus is the many anti-dilution guarantees the company has agreed upon with their early investors like Baring, Matrix, Wellcome, & Kotak. It is not clear whether this may cause unwarranted and unjustified dilution to both institutional and retail investors entering through the IPO, now, as well as during subsequent dilutions. A query sent on this regard to Muthoot Finance remained unanswered.

Where is Indian Stock Market Headed?

Budgets are hard to decipher. Markets even harder. If anyone planned to make some money on budget day, they were in for a rude shock. Millions waited anxiously for each sentence to drop from Pranab’s mouth in TV, and the more discerning were scouring message boards to know what was the analysts’ take about that just dropped line.

Midway into the budget came the unanimous verdict - budget is not very populist, but good for economic growth. Within minutes, Sensex was zooming. By the time Pranab Mukherjee ended his talk, Sensex had lost all senses - a good 500 to 600 points up.

Then the reality slowly started sinking in. What was there so easily decipherable? That auto has been spared an excise hike? That smaller IT firms will take a larger beating? Nothing much else was easily decipherable.

Within minutes of the budget speech ending, the Sensex started tumbling, accelerated by IT and only somewhat sparing the autos. Within the next 30 minutes, 250 points were wiped off, and it didn’t stop there. By the time trade closed, another 125 points were lost.

If you are not into F&O, you would miss the gravity of the situation. For many investors who took positions on that day, and was caught on the wrong foot, the losses would have been roughly Rs. 10,000 for every one lakh of trading.

But that was not all. Many investors, smarting from huge losses, took up reverse positions, vowing to avenge the next day - they were sure of one thing - market is set to collapse.

But overnight, heavyweight brokerages prepared their budget analyses. The general consensus was this - the government has curbed its own borrowing, interest rate looks capped, and if crude can correct a bit, there is no reason why markets can’t rally again!

And crude eased a bit the next day, FIIs rushed to cover their massive shorts, and the markets rallied over 600 points, further damaging retail traders.

This must be the reason why ace investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala advises retail investors to steer clear of any kind of intra-day or short-term trading. According to him, theoretically many can master stock trading, but it would be necessary to lose many battles, to die many times, before a retail trader can be successful.

Never think the circus is over. Now, quite a few days after the budget also, investors are scouring again for determining the sustained upside or damage for each sector from the budget.

And a new consensus verdict is coming, and it is again a reverse position - what the Government is intending is good, but it is not likely to be achieved! Interest rates may again inch up, and rate sensitives - from financial stocks to real estate to autos - are all set for another round of thrashing…

And in the confusion, many core elements other than the budget is being overlooked. If you delve deep into the recent stock-market correction, it was driven by only one thing - FIIs and DIIs withdrawing. And why did they withdraw?

All stock-market corrections are fundamentally corrections in earnings-valuations. This time also the same has happened, starting from the October-November-December quarter. Across-the-board inflation in industrial inputs, commodities, and crude has (and is) continuing to squeeze margins for most industries, pushing down their earnings-valuations.

And the consensus on earnings-valuations is that the worst is yet to come - in the Q4 results. Markets might go up a bit if Libyan crisis eases the pressure on crude, but looking up until April, the outlook remains grim.

And don’t expect much support for the markets from this Government. At least in their intentions, they are more concerned about economic growth which doesn’t work against inflation, and as such will always be at loggerheads with the markets. And lately, they have started to admit some truth too, that some things - read crude, coal, & metals - are not under their control.

ICC Cricket World Cup - The 6 Teams & 12 Players to Watch Out For

By Carl Jaison

It can’t get any bigger than this. 14 teams fight it out to grab hold of that one coveted trophy: The ICC Cricket World Cup. The preparations, of all the 14 teams, leading to this mega event has been pretty good . The target of each team would be to reach Mumbai, which hosts the WC Final and grasp hold of the biggest prize in cricket. Here is a quick analysis on the top 6 teams who will be fighting for realizing one single dream - the ICC Cricket World Cup.

SOUTH AFRICA

The South Africans go into this World cup as one of  the prime contenders and this time around they would surely like to live to the expectations of their fans back home. Needless to say, the  South Africans hold the dubious record of faltering in big events, something they need to improve on. They have been given the unique tag of - ‘The Chokers’. They are a tough team to play against and they showed that with a thumping win over the Windies in their first match of this edition. Historically, South Africa  has heavily depended on their pace bowlers to make a mark. But, against the Windies they showed a change in strategy by fielding 3 regular spinners reflecting their tactical and clever approach of team selection. They still have fiery pace bowlers in their ranks and the spinners too showed why they are no pushovers. Definitely the team to beat!

Captain: 

Graeme Smith
Players to watch out for: 

AB De Villiers, Faf Du Plessiss
Strengths: 

Experienced batting line-up and a brilliant pace attack.
Weakness: 

May find acclimatization difficult and loses track in big games.

AUSTRALIA

The Australians began their campaign as the No.1 ODI side. But this Aussie outfit isn’t like the previous golden generation of the Warne, McGrath, Gilchrist etc. But Australia, still and will, always remain a tough opponent to beat considering their fabulous record in World Cups. They have remained unbeaten in their last 31 WC encounters and that itself will bring shivers down the spines of many a team. They are the defending champs for the third time in a row having won the 1999, 2003 and 2007 World cups. Australia comes into this event on the backdrop of a 6-1 drubbing over England at home. If they can put their act together ,there is no reason why they can’t do it again.

Captain: 

Ricky Ponting
Players to watch out for: 

Shane Watson, Mitchell Johnson
Strengths: 

Comes in with a good reputation making them a very dangerous unit. Can spring a surprise through their pace bowling department having the likes of Lee, Johnson and Tait.
Weakness: 

Lack of a full-fledged spin department.

INDIA 

Many feel this is India’s best chance to win back the cup for the second time, having won the 1983 edition. Bolstered by a team having the likes of Tendulkar, and Sehwag, Indians are feeling that this time around its now or never. Arguably, the most talented lot of this WC, the team would love to get hold of that trophy for their die-hard fans. Indians were off to a good start with 2 convincing warm-up victories against the mighty Aussies and New Zealand. A co-host, along with Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, India will be assisted by the spin-friendly tracks of the sub-continent and being good players of spin, they pose a big threat to any team facing off with them.

Captain: 

Mahendra Singh Dhoni
Players to watch out for: 

Sachin Tendulkar, Virat Kohli
Strengths: 

Batting is India’s strength. They have the ability to post huge totals batting first and each player is a potential match winner. Crowd support will come in handy.
Weakness: 

A rusty pace-bowling unit and inability to chase down mammoth totals are a cause of worry.

SRI LANKA

A team having the likes of Muralitharan, Jayawardena, aand Malinga are definitely a team to reckon with. They are the runners-up of the 2007 WC and will surely want to reach out for glory in this edition. Lankans are a good fielding unit  too which gives them an edge over their rivals. There is no lack of experience in this team and having world class play in their ranks, the Sri Lankans are out to prove their critics wrong. Probable semi-finalists, the Lankans are a tough team to beat in their own den.

Captain: 

Kumar Sangakkara
Players to watch out for: 

Lasith Malinga, Tilakertane Dilshan
Strengths: 

They have a deep batting line-up and a very good spin attack which can effectively utilize juicy, turning wickets.
Weakness: 

Like every other subcontinent team, Sri Lanka too face problems of chasing down mighty scores. Their middle-order needs to fire to ensure a smooth entry into the final stages of the WC.

ENGLAND

The English are a much more confident squad which they proved by drawing a nail-biting , cliff-hanger of a game against favourites India. The game showed that the England team can  fight till the finish and can play around their charismatic skipper Andrew Strauss, who proved his mettle by scoring a breath-taking 158 in quick time. They are touted as the dark horse of this WC and their job is pretty clear and simple: upsetting the top teams. They were beaten by Australia in a bilateral series (6-1), leading to the WC, but every team realises that the score-line can’t be taken into much of an  account considering their energetic and positive start to this mega event.

Captain: 

Andrew Strauss
Players to watch out for: 

Kevin Pietersen, Tim Bresnan
Strengths: 

Showed that they can chase down huge targets and have the players who are capable of playing long innings, someone like a Jonathan Trott.
Weakness: 

The English have been poor on the field letting go off practically sitters. Their bowling too needs to click as they have been hit for more than 250 runs in back-to-back matches, even by minnows Netherlands.

PAKISTAN

Controversies, Match fixing and allegations have been following Pakistani Cricket ever since the dark age of cricket. But, on the cricketing aspect, Pakistan are firm favourites to lift the ICC Cricket World Cup. By beating Sri Lanka in the latter’s den is not a piece of cake and this has sent out a strong message to all those  who dream of holding aloft the prized possession. Pakistan was a prospective co-host but political unrest back home has resulted the ICC to strip them off match rights. Solely for this reason , ‘the bad boys of cricket’ will want to win the trophy for their cricket-frenzy fans back home in Pakistan. They have the ability to go all the way and the team would love to restore international cricket back in Pakistan . One way of doing this is to win back the heart of the ICC and the millions back home.

Captain: 

Shahid Afridi
Players to watch out for: 

Umar Akmal, Shahid Afridi
Strengths: 

Batting prowess is Pakistan’s key to success. They play by their cricket fearlessly thereby creating the possibilities of causing huge upsets.
Weakness: 

The opening slot has been where Pakistan has juggled with the most, trying out more than 10 different players in the past year or so. Pakistan’s complacency may lead to their downfall too.

Singapore Study Disproves Musli Power - Cialis Connection

Boosted by the development, company has launched a special discount scheme for senior citizens.

A recent comprehensive study done by a Singapore based laboratory has confirmed that Musli Power Extra, the controversial herbal formulation, doesn't contain Tadalafil (used in Cialis), Vardenafil (used in Levitra), Sildenafil (used in Viagra), or any synthetic steroids, or over 200 allopathic molecules. The study result came as a shot in the arm for Kunnath Pharmaceuticals, manufacturers of Musli Power X-tra, which had announced a Rs. 5 crore reward for anyone proving that their herbal formulation was laced with any of these PDE5 Inhibitors, which are used as erectile dysfunction drugs. Earlier, Mass Spectrum Analysis done on the formulation at Bangalore's Sequent Research Ltd had also disproved the Musli Power - Tadalafil connection. 

Boosted by these affirmations, the company recently launched a discount scheme for senior citizens. Seasonal Magazine caught up with Dr. KC Abraham, founder of Kunnath Pharmaceuticals, to find out the latest developments regarding their blockbuster drug, Musli Power Extra:

Recently you had launched a discount-scheme for senior citizens. What made you go for such a strategy?

A good percentage of Musli Power X-Tra users have been senior citizens. Some of them were finding it difficult to afford the medicine on a regular basis, according to the feedback we were receiving directly at our offices as well as from the over one lakh medical shops across the country where the product is available. Now, most services are being offered to seniors at a discount, like railways or financial services, reflecting their relatively challenging earnings situation. So, we were working on a solution, and recently we launched it by offering 90s  pack at Rs. 1200 against MRP of Rs. 2000, and 60s pack at Rs. 900 instead of Rs. 1400. This is perhaps the first time that any medicine belonging to any medical system has been made available at a discount to senior citizens. And the discount is quite good at 35-40%. If they bring in our ad coupon provided in several dailies, the discount can go up to 50% of MRP.

How does the discount-scheme work or how can senior citizens avail of this offer?

The offer is available directly from our offices. Senior citizens can either visit or order it through mail. We require full address and age proof. Those ordering through mail should enclose a DD or Cheque at par in favour of Kunnath Pharmaceuticals, payable at Ernakulam. We will deliver the packs directly to the customer via courier. A maximum of four packs can be ordered by a senior citizen at a time. This has been kept so as this is a time-limited offer for one month during which we expect to deliver only one lakh packs under discount.

How has been the response to this offer?

The response has been surprisingly strong, much above our expectations. We think we will run out of packs even before March ends.

How have you been responding to allegations that Musli Power Extra contains Tadalafil, the active ingredient in the erectile dysfunction drug Cialis?

There has been only one allegation, which was made by a Delhi based pharmacy institute. Their study was totally unfounded, as they don’t have facilities for Mass Spectrum Analysis, which as you might know, is the gold standard to accurately find out all the ingredients in a formulation. So, even though numerous studies by drug administration agencies of various state governments had repeatedly proven that Musli Power doesn’t contain tadalafil, vardenafil, sildenafil, or any synthetic steroids, we decided to go in for Mass Spectrum Analysis at Bangalore’s Sequent Research Ltd, which is one of a handful of Indian labs doing this quite expensive study. Now their study has also come out which totally disproves the claim that Musli Power X-Tra contains Tadalafil or any other similar allopathic compounds. Even more recently, our product underwent a more detailed study by a top-notch laboratory in Singapore, and this study not only confirmed the absence of tadalafil, but the absence of around 200 active allopathic molecules. In other words, no allopathic or synthetic active ingredient either invented or likely to be introduced are there in Musli Power Extra.

So, you are not paying anyone the Rs. 5 crore reward for proving Tadalafil’s presence?

Why should we? In fact, we should be suing this Delhi pharmacy setup for making such an irresponsible statement, even while they were perfectly aware that they simply don’t have the facility to make such a claim, that is Mass Spectrum Analysis. But we don’t pursue such things, as we know who is behind these small setups. MNC pharma giants whose sales have been affected by our popularity is behind all these.

Recently, you have strengthened your anti-imitation strategy for Musli Power X-Tra. Has imitative products become a real threat?

Yes, definitely this is a threat, but not only for us, but for our customers. You see, we have this good thing going for us, due to a superior formulation and wide publicity. Some manufacturers of spurious medicines are trying to piggyback on - or downright exploit - our efforts by making similar packs with similar names. Now the latest strategy is offering medical shops a profit margin of over 70% to push such products. That is why we have started placing ‘Beware of Imitators’ warning prominently in all our publicity materials. You will be surprised at the kind of nifty designs and names used to feel and sound like our product. We have a collection of them, sent in by our customers and executives. Many customers only check the pack and bottle in detail, only on realizing that the (duplicate) medicine is not effective. So, now we are publicising the different ways in which the original Musli Power X-Tra can be identified and confidently bought. Apart from the over one lakh medical shops, the product is available directly from our offices, through mail order, and from our website as well as other e-commerce sites approved by us.